Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.663610 2.845657 3.040484 3.265646 3.520163 3.800711 4.135815
2025-02-16 2.368298 2.609751 2.882394 3.216922 3.621883 4.103895 4.733306
2025-02-23 2.188467 2.462545 2.783665 3.194931 3.719012 4.381775 5.314488
2025-03-02 2.053108 2.346789 2.700685 3.169421 3.792148 4.621074 5.868203
2025-03-09 1.945441 2.252073 2.630151 3.145179 3.854350 4.842433 6.424744
2025-03-16 1.863663 2.181505 2.581445 3.140250 3.935650 5.093355 7.066900
2025-03-23 1.810735 2.142572 2.568524 3.178967 4.077908 5.448230 7.952202
2025-03-30 1.733462 2.066608 2.500255 3.133059 4.088263 5.595662 8.504128
2025-04-06 1.663770 1.996472 2.434842 3.084820 4.087965 5.722209 9.043557
2025-04-13 1.589019 1.915820 2.350262 3.002046 4.024832 5.732083 9.347160
2025-04-20 1.558990 1.893713 2.345007 3.034996 4.147465 6.081278 10.478605
2025-04-27 1.540626 1.886189 2.359120 3.097039 4.322694 6.553331 12.077319
2025-05-04 1.516685 1.870428 2.361338 3.142151 4.476752 7.019221 13.911295
2025-05-11 1.473625 1.826050 2.319662 3.114932 4.501062 7.227606 15.131082
2025-05-18 1.436019 1.787788 2.284949 3.096193 4.538144 7.469220 16.602538
2025-05-25 1.399611 1.749765 2.248677 3.072223 4.562632 7.687190 18.145113
2025-06-01 1.365824 1.714229 2.214450 3.049235 4.586313 7.907745 19.876777
2025-06-08 1.338759 1.687398 2.192119 3.044558 4.644517 8.222637 22.314427
2025-06-15 1.323423 1.676993 2.194247 3.081314 4.788183 8.784403 26.673423
2025-06-22 1.289874 1.638687 2.151573 3.037730 4.763912 8.900146 28.750262
2025-06-29 1.257526 1.601239 2.108906 2.991909 4.731086 8.987844 30.829776
2025-07-06 1.219132 1.553858 2.049201 2.913227 4.623146 8.847084 31.183371
2025-07-13 1.207431 1.545887 2.051241 2.944557 4.752623 9.421771 38.247876